ICBA Chief Economist Jock Finlayson researches and analyzes the vital economic data you need to know to grow your construction business.
Jock's Top Story
The 2024 federal budget unveiled dozens of new initiatives intended to address Canada’s unfolding housing affordability and supply crisis. Never before have Canadian politicians been so seized with housing-related issues.
At the heart of the problem is a large and still-growing gap between the country’s available housing stock and the number of new Canadian households being formed. New households emerge due to in-migration, young adults entering the housing market (usually to rent), divorces/separations, and other factors. In the Canadian context, immigration-driven population growth is the principal driver of new household formation. As of 2023, Canada had more than 16 million households, up from just under 12 million in 2001 and around 13.75 million in 2011. Note that each household requires a dwelling unit.
A recent RBC Economics report estimates that Canada gained 933,500 additional households between 2019 and 2023, while the housing stock rose by 763,500. The Parliamentary Budget Officer reports that even in the pre-pandemic period from 2015 to 2019, there was a persistent discrepancy between household formation and net additions to the housing stock (after accounting for new completions plus conversions and demolitions). For example, the PBO found that Canada added 460,000 net new households last year, while home completions reached 242,000. And two years earlier, in 2021, the PBO estimates that Canada would have had 631,000 more households “if attainable housing options had existed.” That number presumably would be considerably higher today given rapid population growth over 2022-23 coupled with a drop in housing starts…
What Mike and Jock are reading:
RBC’s Thought Leadership Group offers seven ways to fix Canada’s housing shortage. Lots of great ideas in here, including getting government out of the way by cutting taxes and expensive red tape.
ICBA Alberta's Construction Monitor
Winter 2023
Affordable housing is a key component of the “Alberta Advantage”. But there are disturbing signs that we are losing ground on that front – not least among them the fact that more than 60% of Albertans agree with the statement that “owning a home in Canada is now only for the rich.”
Our housing prices are still well short of the stratospheric levels of Toronto and Vancouver. But the numbers show that both Edmonton and Calgary are becoming increasingly unaffordable.
There’s also a growing realization that something different is at play this time. What we’re seeing isn’t a familiar boom-bust impact of energy prices, but the outcome of a massive imbalance between demand and supply.
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About Jock Finlayson
Jock Finlayson is Chief Economist for the Independent Contractors and Businesses Association (ICBA), Canada’s largest construction association. He is the first Chief Economist in ICBA’s 50-year history. Analyzing industry trends, market conditions, and economic factors to provide insights and forecasts relevant to the construction sector, he advises ICBA and its members on developments in the business and policy environment affecting the construction sector and the broader economy and assists in strategic planning and public policy advocacy.
Previously, Mr. Finlayson served as Executive Vice President and Chief Policy Officer at the Business Council of British Columbia. In that capacity, he directed the Business Council’s work on economic, fiscal, tax, environmental, regulatory, and human capital issues of interest to the largest employers in the province and the wider business community.
Prior to returning to B.C. in 1994, Mr. Finlayson was Vice President of Research at the Business Council of Canada, a leading business association in Ottawa.
Mr. Finlayson holds a master’s degree in business from Yale University, undergraduate and M.A. degrees from UBC, and an honorary Doctor of Laws from Royal Roads University.
He is the author/coauthor of two books and more than 50 published articles, book chapters and monographs. A frequent commentator on economic, business, and public policy issues, Mr. Finlayson writes regularly for Business in Vancouver, the Globe and Mail, The Orca, Black Press, Troy Media, and Postmedia.
From 2007 to 2013, Mr. Finlayson was a member of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Canada, where he chaired the Corporate Governance Committee and the Fellowship Committee and served on both the Pension Committee and the Human Resources Committee. He is a past member of the National Statistics Council, the principal advisory body to the Chief Statistician of Canada, and previously sat on the Boards of the Institute for Research on Public Policy, the Canada West Foundation, and Genome BC. From 2019 to 2021, he was a member of the Expert Panel on Housing Supply and Affordability jointly appointed by the B.C. and federal governments.
Mr. Finlayson is a Senior Fellow at the Fraser Institute, a Fellow of Royal Roads University, and past president of both the Association of Professional Economists of B.C. and the Ottawa Economics Association. He resides in West Vancouver with his wife Marlene.
